Snapshot - 11 February 2026
UK wholesale energy prices fell sharply on Tuesday as gas, power and carbon all moved lower in tandem. NBP front-month gas dropped around 4.5 p/therm to the mid-74s while UK baseload power contracts lost between 3 and 7 per cent across the curve, led by near-dated products. Strong LNG supply, steady Norwegian pipeline flows and revised temperature forecasts all contributed to the softer tone, though below-average European storage levels at 36 per cent continue to underpin forward prices. This morning, gas has recovered modestly as cooler weather is expected into the weekend.
The headline move was in UK carbon, where UKA futures have collapsed roughly 20 per cent over two days to around £49 per tonne – their lowest since April – driven by sterling weakness, expected monetary policy easing and fund liquidation. The UKA–EUA spread has widened to multi-month highs, with European allowances holding up considerably better near €79 per tonne. On the policy front, Germany's Chancellor Merz called for the EU to consider revising its emissions trading system, adding a further layer of uncertainty.
In the background, the UK government awarded a record round of renewables contracts-for-difference, but grid connection delays affecting nearly two-thirds of advanced projects temper optimism about delivery timelines. Brent crude held near $69 per barrel on geopolitical headlines but lacks momentum. The near-term outlook hinges on how cold the weekend turns out and whether the UKA sell-off finds a floor.
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