Snapshot - 10 February 2026
European gas and power markets softened on Monday and held those losses into Tuesday morning as milder weather forecasts across the UK and Continent unwound the winter risk premium. NBP day-ahead settled around 82.70 p/therm, down nearly 8 p/therm on the previous session, while UK baseload power traded in the mid-to-high £80s per MWh. Storage withdrawal rates across Europe have slowed markedly, easing near-term inventory concerns, though EU facilities remain roughly 12 percentage points below last year's levels.
Crude oil edged higher to around $69/bbl on lingering US–Iran uncertainty, while European carbon allowances bounced from recent lows with EUAs trading above €81/tonne. Political developments around the EU ETS – including calls from senior lawmakers for a slower pace of emissions reductions – are adding a layer of policy uncertainty to the carbon market. An EU competitiveness summit in Antwerp this week will bring energy costs and industrial strategy into sharper focus.
The near-term outlook hinges on whether a brief cold spell forecast for the weekend materialises and how quickly wind output ramps higher. Norwegian supply is steady, LNG send-out remains robust, and the UK system opened long on Tuesday, all pointing to a comfortable physical balance for now. Further-dated contracts are showing modest resilience, supported by carbon pricing, nuclear outages and structural demand from data centre expansion.
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