Snapshot - 11 May 2026
UK and European gas prices opened the week firmer as geopolitical risk and a cooler near-term weather signal reinforced supply-side concerns. NBP day-ahead is trading around 110 to 112 p/therm with Winter-26 lifting roughly 2 p/therm versus Friday, while TTF holds near €44 per MWh. Planned Norwegian maintenance at Gullfaks tomorrow removes around 9 mcm/day, and Langeled flows into the UK are already softer, though steady LNG send-out and three NWE arrivals today and tomorrow provide a counterweight.
UK baseload power was mixed. The day-ahead settled at £100.63 per MWh on Friday before pulling back further this morning on a strong wind forecast and a 0.5 GW nuclear return, but Winter-26 firmed to £96 per MWh as the broader curve tracked gas higher. CCGT demand averaged 8.9 GW last week as wind underperformed, but this week's renewable step-up across north-west Europe should ease that pressure, with France the notable exception on weaker midweek wind.
Brent surged through $104 per barrel after Washington rejected Iran's counterproposal and US forces disabled two Iranian tankers, reinforcing the chokepoint premium. Coal Cal-27 held near $118 per tonne and EUA Dec-26 settled at €75.18 per tonne, with carbon broadly steady across the year contracts. The UKA-EUA discount was little changed and sterling was unchanged against the euro at 1.1573.
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