Snapshot - 12 May 2026
The energy complex pushed higher on Monday as a cooler weather profile, fresh supply disruption and an escalation in the US-Iran standoff combined to lift gas, power and crude together. UK gas contracts rallied around 5p/therm across the front of the curve, with Win-26 settling near 115p/therm and morning trade extending towards 118p/therm. UK baseload power followed, with Jun-26 adding close to £6/MWh and Win-26 lifting nearly £4/MWh, even as the day-ahead settled lower on a strong wind print.
Unplanned maintenance at the Hammerfest LNG facility removed around 18 mcm/day of capacity into the middle of the week, tightening the front at a point when aggregated Norwegian restrictions were already curtailing flows. Storage tells the wider story. European sites are tracking near 35 per cent full and UK inventories near 22 per cent, leaving a heavier summer injection task that continues to underwrite curve premium. The market is increasingly pricing the cost of refill rather than current consumption.
Crude added close to 3 per cent on Monday and extended in early Tuesday trade towards $107/bbl after the US rejected Iran's latest counter-proposal. Carbon firmed in step, with EUAs reaching their highest level since early February and UKAs adding nearly £3/tonne, pushing further premium into seasonal UK power contracts. Attention now turns to the Trump-Xi meeting later this week and to the Norwegian maintenance schedule, where any slippage from the planned ramp back to 182.6 mcm/day next Wednesday would compound an already stretched supply picture.
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