Snapshot - 08 May 2026
UK and European gas prices opened firmer on Friday after Thursday's losses, as overnight reports of US-Iran naval clashes in the Strait of Hormuz and renewed attacks on UAE infrastructure reintroduced a geopolitical risk premium. NBP day-ahead traded around 109.70 p/therm with morning indicative levels firming towards 112.00 p/therm, while front-month and Win-26 contracts added 1.5 to 2.0 p/therm in early dealing. UK baseload power tracked gas higher, recovering Thursday's prompt decline of close to £2/MWh, with curve contracts firmer across the strip.
Brent crude recouped around $3/bbl after a week that had taken it below $100/bbl on improving Iran-US ceasefire prospects. Coal was little changed on the day but down nearly 4% on the week, while carbon eased further with EUA Dec-26 down close to €1/t and UK ETS softer in sympathy. Wind generation has underperformed this week, leaving CCGT as the dominant source of GB power, but forecasts point to wind rising above seasonal norms from the weekend into next week, which should reduce gas-for-power call and ease prompt pressure.
Storage remains the medium-term anchor. EU stocks were at 34.25% on 5 May and UK sites at 25%, with Rough still empty. The summer injection requirement keeps Sum-27 well below Win-26 on the curve, supporting injection economics but offering limited cushion against any further Norwegian or LNG disruption. Norwegian outages at Troll and Kårstø on Thursday have been resolved, with flows to the UK now lifting on stronger Langeled nominations.
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