Snapshot - 07 May 2026
European energy markets fell sharply through Wednesday's session as improving US-Iran peace prospects triggered a broad unwinding of geopolitical risk premium across gas, power and crude. NBP, TTF and Brent all fell between 6 and 8 per cent on the curve front, with the US pausing its Strait of Hormuz convoy operation and reports suggesting a peace memo is close. The 7 May open has retraced some of those moves as Iran's move to charge transit tolls cuts against the de-escalation narrative.
UK power followed gas lower, with day-ahead baseload settling near £109/MWh and front-season contracts off 4 to 6 per cent. Indicative morning prices are mixed as buyers test for a base, with some front-month contracts firming a few pounds against yesterday's settlement. Below-seasonal wind generation, cooler weather forecasts and a heavy upcoming nuclear maintenance schedule across Heysham, Torness and Sizewell B are providing a clear floor on the curve.
Carbon bucked the trend as EUA Dec-26 added 0.45 per cent to close near €76/tonne, supported by compliance buying and softer expectations for the July UK ETS reform. EU gas storage at 34 per cent fullness - the lowest for early May in five years - and a fresh wave of Norwegian outages from today remain the principal counterweights to the bearish geopolitical impulse and continue to underwrite further-dated gas and power contracts.
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