Snapshot - 06 May 2026
European gas and power markets opened materially lower on Wednesday morning as the United States announced a pause to its naval escort programme through the Strait of Hormuz, citing progress towards a possible deal with Iran. The development has trimmed the geopolitical risk premium that had supported the curve over recent sessions, with NBP front month falling around 3 p/therm and TTF easing about 1 €/MWh into the morning. Brent moved more sharply, falling around 6 per cent from Tuesday's settlement to roughly 103 $/bbl as the broader oil complex recalibrated to a less disrupted Hormuz outlook.
The bearish geopolitical signal sits against a tighter physical picture in the UK. The system was short into the morning with demand running above seasonal norm, Langeled flows softer on a downward adjustment and Easington Langeled capped by planned maintenance, while an unplanned nuclear outage at Hartlepool 1 added to dispatch challenges. Pan-European storage at around 34 per cent, roughly 7 per cent below the same point last year, kept curve contracts well above year-ago levels.
UK baseload power followed gas lower but by less, with the front month easing about 2.45 £/MWh into the morning. Cooler temperatures into Thursday, wind running below seasonal norm and the nuclear outage stack helped limit the downside. Carbon settled higher on Tuesday with EUA Dec-26 at 75.71 €/tonne, providing curve support that may temper how far seasonal power contracts correct in the days ahead.
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