Snapshot - 05 May 2026
European gas and power markets opened sharply higher this morning following a volatile bank holiday weekend, as escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz reversed Friday's modest softness. UK NBP front month is indicating around 117 p/therm, up roughly 5 p/therm on Friday's 112.10 settlement. Reports of US strikes on Iranian vessels, UAE missile intercepts, and an extension to QatarEnergy's LNG force majeure through to mid-June have collectively driven the move.
UK baseload power tracked gas higher with the front month around £97/MWh, up approximately £4 on Friday. A sharp drop in UK wind generation, down more than 60 per cent day on day, alongside cooler than seasonal temperatures and continued nuclear unavailability has lifted gas-for-power requirements by an expected 10 mcm/day on the day-ahead. Heysham 1 unit 2 begins a 54-day planned outage today, with Heysham 2 unit 8 and both Sizewell B units due offline through May.
Brent crude surged towards $113-114/bbl in early trade, up around 5 per cent on Friday and over 5 per cent on the week, as Hormuz disruption risk dominates the oil narrative. Coal firmed modestly with API2 Cal-27 at $121.15/tonne, while carbon held broadly steady at €73.94/tonne for EUA Dec-26 and £49.88/tonne for UK ETS Dec-26. With UK gas storage at just 10 per cent and limited LNG send-out scheduled, the prompt market remains exposed to further geopolitical headlines.
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