Snapshot - 30 October 2025
European gas and power benchmarks inched higher into Wednesday’s close as traders balanced Norwegian supply curtailments against comfortable storage levels and mild temperature outlooks. Guidance that flows from the Norwegian Continental Shelf should recover before the weekend helped limit upside after mid-week reductions at Troll. Broader sentiment was steadier, supported by macro optimism following remarks from President Trump ahead of talks with China’s President Xi, while LNG availability remained firm as slower Asian and Egyptian demand freed additional Atlantic cargoes.
Prompt and near-curve gas gained modestly as lower Norwegian nominations kept a floor under hubs. Flows to Europe held in the mid-270s mcm/day, with a step-up of roughly 50 mcm/day expected by Friday. The bullish impact was tempered by robust LNG send-out and mild weather, leaving front-month NBP near 80 p/th and TTF around €32/MWh. EU inventories remain in the low-80s per cent range, reinforcing a well-supplied backdrop even as traders maintain a narrow winter risk premium tied to geopolitics and short cold spells.
UK power followed gas higher but moves were contained by only modest carbon gains and expectations that weaker wind will be brief. Forecasts point to a dip in wind speeds into the weekend, tightening the prompt and lifting sparks, before recovery early next week. French nuclear availability and steady interconnector flows continue to smooth volatility, while forward prices remain range-bound as warmer November weather limits thermal burn beyond short renewable gaps.
Oil steadied around $63–64/bbl after recent softness, helped by signals that producers are moderating output plans amid emerging surplus risks. Russian refined-product exports have fallen to post-invasion lows due to refinery outages and stricter sanctions, while North Sea crude loadings are set to rise to their highest in eight years as new Norwegian volumes ramp. Carbon benchmarks edged higher, extending a two-week rebound with the EUA–UKA spread holding steady. Ofgem proposed writing off £500 million in energy debt, the EU confirmed its 2027 LNG ban, and North Sea output growth reinforced expectations of a looser crude balance into early 2026.
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