Snapshot - 29 October 2025
European gas and power benchmarks firmed modestly on Tuesday as risk premia returned following fresh strikes on energy infrastructure and lower renewable output. Despite the uptick, markets remain range-bound, with strong storage and steady seaborne supply cushioning fundamentals. UK demand opened below seasonal norms and the grid ran long, but reduced wind generation lifted gas-for-power and prompted minor storage withdrawals. Forward prices stayed around €32/MWh at TTF and the high-70s p/th at NBP as traders weighed a cooler end to October against a milder start to November.
Prompt gas edged higher into the close, supported by weaker wind and short-lived flow constraints from Norway that trimmed Langeled nominations. UK system demand stayed roughly 14 mcm below normal, while gas-for-power gains drew modestly on storage. Front-month NBP hovered near 80 p/th and TTF around €32/MWh, keeping the complex within its established October corridor. European inventories remain near 83 per cent, and active LNG scheduling points to continued supply, leaving weather and geopolitics as the main potential disruptors into early winter.
UK power tracked gas higher as renewable generation dipped and demand increased. Day-ahead prices were volatile, reflecting intermittent wind output, while forward gains were more contained given comfortable fuel supply and interconnector stability. Forecasts show wind output below seasonal norms late this week but rebounding early next, while warmer-than-average temperatures should narrow near-curve spark spreads and keep power aligned with gas fundamentals.
Crude steadied near $63–64/bbl after OPEC+ confirmed a slower pace of supply increases. VLCC freight rates surged to the highest levels since 2020 as sanctions reshuffled trade flows and extended voyage times. Carbon prices were steady to slightly softer, with EUAs in the high-€70s/t and UKAs in the low-£60s/t, while UK refiners warned of rising carbon cost pressures. The Chancellor is reviewing the windfall tax timeline, EU storage continues to cushion early-winter risk, and Serbia requested leniency over its Russian-linked refinery as tanker rates climbed to multi-year highs.
This Snapshot offers a concise view of market trends. For comprehensive daily reports, strategic analysis and tailored advisory support, Lumley Consulting provides independent insight across gas, power and wider energy markets. Learn more about our premium subscriptions and consultancy services here.