UK wholesale energy prices pushed higher again, with the gas prompt touching levels not seen for close to four years. Day-ahead gas settled in the high 230s p/therm and has been bid into the low 240s this morning after reports that the United States has urged Gulf states to prepare for renewed military action against Iran. The physical picture behind the move is genuinely tight: Norwegian unplanned outages, European storage at its lowest seasonal level on record, and UK sites only a little over 40 per cent full.
Power was the bigger mover. Day-ahead baseload settled roughly 60 per cent higher than the previous day as the market priced in an advancing high-pressure system that will suppress wind output from Thursday into the weekend. Intraday system prices on Tuesday swung from below zero in the early hours to the high £270s per MWh in the evening peak, and overnight pricing has stayed firm. Front-month power edged higher while the rest of the curve drifted lower, leaving November at a clear premium to December.
Across the wider complex, crude eased on Tuesday before firming this morning on an attack on a Saudi refinery, and coal and global LNG benchmarks both softened. Carbon slipped slightly in both the EU and UK schemes, with the UK allowance holding its usual discount to the European contract. Sterling was little changed. The balance of risk into next week sits firmly with the weather and the Middle East, and with storage this thin there is limited cushion if both turn against the market at once.
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