Snapshot - 27 October 2026
European gas and power extended their October rally into Monday’s close, with UK day-ahead gas settling in the mid-230s p/therm and the front of the curve pushing through 238 p/therm to fresh multiyear highs. The driver is supply rather than weather: unplanned Norwegian outages removed around 40 mcm/day of capacity, and transit restrictions in the Middle East continue to keep a large share of Persian Gulf LNG away from international markets. Prices have retraced slightly this morning on reports of de-escalation talks in Tehran, but the pullback has been modest and liquidity remains thin.
Power rose sharply on the prompt, with UK day-ahead baseload resetting from the high-£30s/MWh on Friday to just under £110/MWh on Monday as storm-driven wind faded and gas-fired generation returned to the stack. Forward power is holding its gains, with November and January contracts trading around £190 to £200/MWh and continental benchmarks in Germany, the Netherlands and France all setting fresh multi-year highs above €200/MWh. Nuclear availability remains below par and wind output is forecast to collapse from Thursday, so there is little in the near term to relieve the pressure.
Elsewhere, crude eased modestly as diplomatic headlines took some risk premium out of the front of the barrel stack, while coal drifted lower and remains comfortably in merit for continental generators. Carbon rose with the fuels, with EU allowances near €88 per tonne and UK allowances in the mid-£60s, leaving the UK scheme at a discount of close to €10 per tonne. Storage is the constraint to watch: EU inventories look adequate in aggregate, but UK levels are low for the date and offer limited cushion against a sustained cold spell.
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