Snapshot - 26 October 2026
UK and European wholesale energy prices pushed higher into the end of last week and have continued firmer this morning, with the move driven by supply risk rather than weather. Gas day-ahead settled in the low 220s p/therm and is being offered in the mid 230s today, while the front winter and Q1 contracts have moved up more sharply still. The curve is now inverted, with next summer trading above next winter, a shape that signals real concern about the months immediately ahead rather than a general repricing of gas.
Power followed gas along the curve, with the front months settling in the high £170s to low £180s/MWh and January the high point of the near curve. The day-ahead market was the exception: weekend prices collapsed into the £30s/MWh as wind ran hard, and Sunday morning briefly saw system prices turn negative before the evening ramp drove them above £270/MWh. Prompt power has recovered to the £110/MWh area today. Nuclear availability remains a constraint, with several Heysham units out, and gas-fired margins are thin enough that thermal plant only runs when wind steps back.
Elsewhere, crude settled firmer on Friday near the upper end of its recent range before easing today on talk of de-escalation in the Middle East, and coal firmed alongside the wider complex. Carbon was the quiet market, with both the European and UK schemes close to unchanged and the UK allowance holding its usual discount to Europe. Sterling was broadly flat and added nothing to delivered import costs.
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