Snapshot - 25 August 2026
Gas extended its run higher on Monday for a seventh consecutive session, driven not by weather but by the arrival of the US sanctions package against Iran and by a European storage position that remains well short of where it normally sits at this point in the refill season. UK day-ahead gas settled in the mid-160s p/therm, its strongest level in more than three years, and the forward curve moved considerably further than the prompt did. Winter contracts and the front quarter both gained around 3.5 per cent on the day, with Winter-26 now roughly a quarter higher than it was at the start of the month. Above-normal temperatures across North West Europe and healthy LNG arrivals have not been enough to slow it.
Power followed gas higher and, on the prompt, moved further. Day-ahead baseload rose by around 10 per cent as a week of weak wind pushed the system back onto gas-fired plant, and peak prices rose more sharply still. The intraday picture was extreme, with prices collapsing to single-digit and low-teen levels through the solar-heavy early afternoon before spiking to £200/MWh on the evening ramp, a swing of nearly £186/MWh within one day. Forward power set fresh highs, with Calendar 2027 baseload reaching its strongest level since 2023, and generation margins remain thin as carbon and gas costs together sit at or above what day-ahead power will pay.
Elsewhere in the complex the picture was mixed. Crude fell around 2.5 per cent as the market judged the sanctions less disruptive to actual flows than the rhetoric suggested, while coal firmed modestly and carbon rose on both the European and UK schemes, adding directly to generation costs. Asian LNG held a slim premium to Europe, which is keeping cargoes pointed this way for now. Sterling was firmer against the euro and flat against the dollar, contributing nothing material either way.
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