Snapshot - 24 August 2026
UK and European gas extended a run of gains into a sixth session on Friday, with NBP day-ahead settling above 160 p/therm and the winter contracts pushing to fresh multi-year highs. The driver was geopolitical rather than physical: a sharply tougher US sanctions regime on Iran, the UAE suspending dealings with Tehran and continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Norwegian supply actually improved over the period as processing outages cleared, but a European storage position running well behind last year has kept a firm floor under the market.
Power tracked gas higher along the curve, with winter and Q4 baseload contracts adding ground, while the day-ahead price fell steeply on strong midday renewable output. Weekend system prices swung from negative territory in the middle of Sunday to the price cap during the evening ramp, a reminder of how much intraday volatility thin renewable-heavy shoulder days can generate. UK nuclear availability is thin with three units off, and French reactors face renewed heat-related curtailments this week.
Across the wider complex, Brent held above $90/bbl on the same Iran narrative before easing this morning, coal firmed slightly and carbon added modest ground in both the EU and UK schemes, with UK allowances continuing to trade at a double-digit discount to their European equivalents. Sterling was steady. The near-term picture stays sensitive to headlines out of the Gulf, with the curve suggesting the market expects the current premium to persist through winter rather than fade quickly.
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