Snapshot - 19 August 2026
Wholesale energy prices rose for a third straight session, with UK gas and power both closing higher and the front of the gas curve reaching levels not seen for more than three years. The move was driven by supply rather than weather. A heavy Norwegian maintenance programme is coming into view for September, European storage remains well below where the market would like it at this point in the injection season, and Middle East tensions have hardened rather than eased. Day-ahead gas settled in the mid-to-high 150s in pence per therm, and the equivalent Dutch benchmark reached its highest close in over three years.
Power tracked gas higher across the curve, with day-ahead baseload settling in the low £140s per MWh. Wind was reasonable through Tuesday at around 29 per cent of the generation stack, but solar was well down on the previous week, pushing the system's reliance onto gas into the evening. Winter and fourth-quarter contracts gained around 2 per cent, and forward peak prices moved faster than baseload, which is usually a sign the market is pricing tightness at the margin rather than across the board. Nuclear availability is thin on both sides of the Channel, with several UK units offline and French unavailability elevated into September.
In the wider complex, crude held above $90/bbl on continuing geopolitical risk, coal firmed slightly, and carbon added to the bid, with European allowances in the low €80s per tonne and UK allowances close to £59. Sterling was marginally weaker against both the euro and the dollar. The prompt has softened a little this morning, but the curve has not followed, which suggests the market is treating winter supply risk as the more durable concern.
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