Snapshot - 12 October 2026
UK and European energy prices ended last week firmly higher, and the driver is geopolitical rather than seasonal. Day-ahead gas settled in the mid 190s p/therm, with the front month pushing back above 200 p/therm at this morning’s open after renewed attacks on Saudi infrastructure and a claimed Iranian strike on an LPG carrier. Continental gas settled in the low 80s €/MWh. The physical picture does not obviously support the move: Norwegian flows are holding above 330 mcm/day despite curtailments, the UK system opened long, and a steady programme of Atlantic cargoes is arriving through the middle of the month.
Power split sharply between the prompt and the curve. Day-ahead baseload more than halved for weekend delivery as wind and solar ran strongly against low demand, with peak settling below baseload, before rebounding towards £130/MWh for the working week. Forward power rose in step with gas and carbon, with winter months settling in the £160 to £175/MWh range. Intraday behaviour has been volatile at both ends, with Sunday evening and this morning’s ramp both pricing well above £200/MWh before solar pulled prices back sharply.
Elsewhere, crude held above $100/bbl with Brent firm on the week, caught between Gulf supply risk and an announced but unconfirmed energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Coal gained around 3 per cent on the week. Carbon was the week’s standout, with UK allowances reaching an eight-month high on reports that the UK and EU intend to link their emissions trading schemes, while EU allowances added close to 3 per cent. Sterling was broadly unchanged against both the euro and the dollar.
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