Snapshot - 09 October 2026
European energy markets pulled in two directions on Thursday. Forward prices pushed higher again across gas, power and carbon, extending a rally that has added close to ten per cent to UK winter and summer gas contracts in a single week, while prompt prices collapsed as an exceptional wind forecast arrived. UK day-ahead baseload fell by well over forty per cent to the high £70s/MWh, with day-ahead peak settling marginally below baseload - an unusual inversion caused by very high daytime wind rather than anything structural.
Gas remains the driver. Extended outages at two Norwegian fields cut exports again, and European storage sits around 73 per cent full, roughly fourteen percentage points behind normal for this point in the year, with the UK materially weaker still. Front-month NBP held in the mid-190s p/therm and January contracts traded around the 200 mark, while Summer 2027 continues to price above Winter 2027 - a clear signal that the market is more worried about refilling storage next summer than about getting through this winter. Strong winds and mild temperatures next week should keep UK demand subdued, which is the main offset in play.
Power curves firmed on continental tightness rather than UK fundamentals, with French annual prices setting a record above €100/MWh on extended nuclear and hydro shortfalls. Carbon rose in both schemes, with EU allowances in the high €80s per tonne and UK allowances in the mid £60s. Crude settled above $104/bbl before easing on signs of diplomatic restraint toward Iran, though attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and storm-related shut-ins in the US Gulf continue to underpin prices. Expect the prompt to tighten again from Monday as wind drops away.
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