Snapshot - 11 August 2026
UK gas prices rose sharply on Monday in the largest single-session move for several weeks, with the driver being supply security rather than weather. Day-ahead gas settled in the mid-140s p/therm and the Winter 26 contract pushed back towards 150 p/therm, close to the multi-year high set last month. The catalyst was an extension to a major Norwegian production outage running through most of the coming winter, landing on a market already carrying a substantial risk premium from continued disruption to Middle East shipping routes. European storage remains around 59 per cent full with injections running slowly, and expectations for the pre-winter refill have drifted lower.
Power followed gas higher but gained roughly half as much in percentage terms, which squeezed generator margins across the winter contracts. Day-ahead baseload settled in the mid-120s £/MWh. The intraday shape was striking: prices collapsed to below £50/MWh in the early afternoon on strong solar output, then held above £225/MWh through the late evening once solar dropped away, a range of nearly £180/MWh across a single day. Domestic nuclear availability tightens further from the middle of this month as two more units enter planned outages, and heat-related restrictions continue on the French fleet.
Across the wider complex, crude gained around five per cent on renewed shipping disruption, and coal firmed alongside it. Carbon was the exception, easing on the day in both the European and UK schemes, with UK allowances falling faster and widening their discount to the European market. Sterling was firm but the moves were too small to change import economics. The near-term picture remains one where prices are being set by supply risk rather than by demand, which historically makes for a market that can retrace quickly if the risk headlines soften.
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