Snapshot - 10 August 2026
Gas and power both opened the week sharply higher after a quiet close to last week. NBP day-ahead and the front-month contract settled marginally lower on Friday in the mid-130s p/therm, but weekend developments in the Gulf - renewed vessel attacks and stalling progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz - have pushed the prompt into the low 140s this morning. Forward gas contracts were broadly flat on Friday, with Winter 26 unchanged and the summer contracts inching higher, though the whole curve is now being marked up. European storage remains the structural concern, sitting well below last year's level with injection rates lagging badly for this point in the season.
Power followed gas in both directions. Friday's day-ahead settlement was heavily depressed by weekend demand and strong solar, with the peak falling further than baseload, and Sunday saw prices trade negative for several hours through the middle of the day before spiking above £170/MWh on the evening ramp. The forward curve was static on Friday but the front-month baseload contract has added several pounds over the weekend. A midweek heatwave, wind running below seasonal norms, and a run of planned nuclear outages starting this month all point towards firmer evening peaks over the coming fortnight.
In the wider complex, crude rose on Friday but finished the week substantially lower, suggesting the market had already priced considerable Gulf disruption risk. Coal drifted slightly higher on the day while remaining down on the week. Carbon was the clear outperformer, with both EU and UK allowances gaining more than 1.5 per cent on Friday and firming over the week even as oil fell, which is an unusual divergence and one worth watching. Asian LNG weakened, keeping Atlantic cargoes pointed at Europe, and sterling was broadly steady.
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