Snapshot - 10 April 2026
Energy markets pulled back this morning after a turbulent week shaped by Middle East tensions. Gas prices softened as reports of potential Israeli-Lebanese negotiations offered momentary relief, though the US-Iran ceasefire remains fragile and Strait of Hormuz transit is still severely restricted. NBP front-month indicatives dropped around 3 per cent from Thursday's settlement, with curve contracts shedding 4-5 p/therm on the week. UK power tracked gas lower, though a forecast drop in wind generation next week is capping losses on the prompt.
Brent crude bounced overnight to around $97.50/bbl on geopolitical headlines but remains sharply lower on the week. Carbon markets held gains, with EUAs above €73/tonne and UKAs settling at £42.90/tonne. Norwegian flows are steady despite planned maintenance at Troll, and LNG send-out into the UK has picked up, providing a comfortable physical supply backdrop for now.
The key watch points heading into next week are the US-Iran negotiations in Pakistan, wind generation forecasts which show a sharp decline through working days, and accumulating UK nuclear outages that are lending structural support to baseload power. Markets remain highly sensitive to any shift in Hormuz transit or ceasefire dynamics.
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