Snapshot - 09 April 2026
Energy markets swung sharply on Wednesday following reports of a US-Israel-Iran ceasefire that raised the prospect of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. UK gas and power prices posted their largest single-day declines in over a month, with NBP prompt falling below 114 p/th and UK baseload day-ahead settling around £91/MWh. Brent crude dropped over 13 per cent to below $95/bbl. However, this morning's session has seen a partial reversal across the complex as the ceasefire's durability comes into question.
The sell-off was driven by expectations that Gulf LNG supply - which accounted for roughly a fifth of global cargoes before the conflict - could gradually return to market. QatarEnergy reportedly plans to begin repairs at Ras Laffan. But ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon, warnings from President Trump about maintaining US military assets in the region, and Iran's insistence that vessels seek permission before transiting Hormuz have tempered optimism. Gas and power prices are 2-7 per cent higher in early Thursday trade on thin liquidity.
Underlying fundamentals remain soft, with warmer-than-seasonal UK weather, below-normal demand, and healthy LNG send-out providing a bearish backdrop. Norwegian maintenance at Troll has trimmed pipeline flows but is well-flagged. The key risk for markets in coming days is whether the ceasefire framework holds or unravels - a resumption of hostilities would quickly reprice the entire complex higher, while a durable deal would likely trigger a further leg down as Gulf supply risk premium is unwound.
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