Snapshot - 07 April 2026
Energy markets reopened after the Easter break in volatile fashion, with geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran dominating sentiment. European gas prices initially surged on Monday morning before fading, with NBP May-26 retreating below 125 p/therm after touching 130 p/therm on the open. Brent crude climbed above $109/bbl as the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed, while carbon certificates moved lower with EUAs down nearly €3 to around €71.69/tonne.
Mild weather across northwest Europe - running 4 to 5°C above seasonal norms - is tempering physical demand and helping to offset some of the geopolitical risk premium. UK gas demand is subdued, Norwegian pipeline flows remain robust, and the system opened comfortably long on Monday. UK power prices fell from pre-Easter levels after Storm Dave delivered strong wind output over the holiday weekend, with day-ahead baseload settling well below £75/MWh.
The outlook remains dominated by Middle East developments. The US deadline for Iran to comply with demands on the Strait of Hormuz adds binary event risk that could push prices sharply in either direction. On the fundamentals side, a heavy UK nuclear maintenance schedule through the summer and low EU storage levels relative to capacity provide underlying support, though above-average temperatures and healthy Norwegian supply are keeping prompt markets in balance for now.
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