Snapshot - 02 April 2026
Energy prices whipsawed through the middle of the week as the market struggled to price the rapidly shifting US-Iran narrative. Wednesday's session delivered heavy losses across gas, power, and oil - with Brent crude briefly dipping below $100/bbl for the first time since the conflict began and NBP gas falling around 5-6 per cent on the prompt. Overnight, President Trump's address calling for escalated action reversed much of the move, with gas and oil prices rallying in early Thursday trade.
UK power tracked gas lower on Wednesday but showed more restraint, supported by an improving wind and temperature outlook into the Easter weekend. Renewable generation recovered sharply, helping to ease residual load and compressing clean spark spreads. Carbon bucked the trend, with EUAs and UKAs both firming on the session. The forward curve remains dominated by the geopolitical risk premium, with analysts warning that Qatari LNG recovery timelines of three to four months may prove optimistic.
Traders are looking to reduce exposure ahead of the long Easter weekend, and liquidity is expected to thin further through Thursday. UK gas demand is forecast to drop toward 190 mcm/day by Friday as milder weather and the holiday combine to reduce load. Any escalation in the Middle East over the break could trigger a sharp reopening move, but the underlying physical picture - steady Norwegian flows, healthy LNG arrivals, and improving wind generation - remains broadly comfortable.
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