Snapshot - 06 October 2026
European gas prices drifted lower at the start of the week as supply stayed comfortable and the weather outlook turned benign, with NBP day-ahead easing into the high 170s p/therm and front-month settling in the low 180s. That move has unwound this morning, with spot and curve both several pence firmer and the November contract pushing back towards 190 p/therm. Norwegian flows remain steady near 330 mcm/day and LNG arrivals into north-west Europe are plentiful, but European storage is still some 14 percentage points below its five-year average for the date, and the UK remains the weakest-stocked major market. The curve is pricing that deficit through a flat, elevated November-to-March block and an unusual premium for next summer over the following winter.
Power moved the other way on the prompt. A sharp drop in wind pushed UK day-ahead baseload up more than £19/MWh to just above £170/MWh, with continental markets clearing above €200/MWh, and Monday's intraday told the same story in reverse, swinging from negative system prices through the middle of the day to close to £250/MWh on the evening ramp. Wednesday is already being offered more than £10/MWh lower as wind rebuilds towards the weekend. Further out, forward power eased with gas, and the real constraint is availability rather than fuel: UK nuclear is carrying a heavy outage stack and the French recovery is qualified by industrial action and low water.
Across the wider complex, crude slipped below $100/bbl as Middle East exports rebuilt to near pre-war levels and Saudi Arabia cut prices to Asian buyers, while coal firmed slightly. Carbon eased in both schemes, but UK allowances have outperformed European ones over the past week and the UK discount has narrowed appreciably. For gas-fired generators that matters: prompt margins remain healthy, but forward clean spark spreads for November are now close to breakeven, and in Germany coal is comfortably ahead of gas in the merit order.
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