Snapshot - 05 October 2026
European energy markets ended last week higher and start this one with the prompt and the curve pointing in different directions. UK gas for November settled in the high 180s in pence per therm, up close to 3 per cent on the week, while front-quarter contracts gained a similar amount. Day-ahead gas held in the low 180s. UK day-ahead power settled a little below £152/MWh and cleared lower again for Monday delivery, with the continent falling considerably harder. Carbon was the weak point, with both EU and UK allowances giving back ground as the compliance cycle closed.
The supply picture today is comfortable but the winter picture is not. Norwegian flows have recovered fully from maintenance and are running close to 330 mcm/day, the UK system opened long, and Atlantic LNG continues to arrive in volume. European storage, however, sits in the low 70s as a percentage of capacity, roughly 15 points below the seasonal norm, with the UK notably thin. A cold front arriving midweek and a sharp drop in wind over the next two days will test that position. Markets are also carrying a geopolitical premium after the Red Sea shipping corridor was closed at the weekend and Qatari LNG delivery suspensions were extended.
Power has been the more interesting market intraday. Zero-priced periods through the overnight and mid-morning hours have sat alongside evening ramps approaching £200/MWh on each of the last four sessions, a pattern that makes shape rather than average price the live risk. Forward power was firm, with January contracts up around 7 per cent on the week on nuclear and hydro constraints in the UK and France. Oil remained range-bound near $102/bbl as a well-supplied physical market offset the headlines, while coal firmed slightly and the UK carbon discount to Europe narrowed.
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