Snapshot - 04 August 2026
Monday was a straightforward unwind of Middle East risk premium. Reports of progress towards a US-Iran deal took the bid out of the entire complex, with NBP day-ahead easing slightly to the low 140s in p/therm, the winter and summer contracts each shedding a few pence, and Brent falling more than 7 per cent. Power forwards followed gas and carbon lower across every tenor.
It did not last. Iran denied that talks were taking place, an LNG carrier was struck attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, and maintenance at a major Norwegian field cut export nominations and UK-bound flows. Gas has opened sharply higher this morning, with the winter contract offered several pence above Monday's close, and power has followed it back up. The one exception is the prompt: after a low-wind Monday sent day-ahead baseload sharply higher into the high £120s per MWh, stronger wind has pulled the next day's price back into the high £80s.
Storage remains the structural story beneath the noise. European inventories are the weakest for the time of year in close to two decades, and on current injection rates will enter winter well short of a comfortable position. Elsewhere, coal fell across the curve by more than gas, carbon eased modestly on both the European and UK schemes, and sterling was marginally softer. With the nuclear stack thinning from Friday and heat returning next week, the second half of August looks tighter than the current prompt implies.
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