Snapshot - 03 August 2026
UK gas firmed at the front of the curve into Friday's close but the weekly direction was firmly lower, with the winter and summer contracts both down between six and nine per cent on the week as the Middle East risk premium continued to deflate. Day-ahead settled in the low 140s p/therm and the winter contract in the low-to-mid 140s, well down from the peak above 153 p/therm reached in late July. Strong Norwegian pipeline flows kept the prompt comfortable, but a poor month for LNG arrivals and a storage refill running well behind last year continue to support the winter. Prices opened softer this morning before recovering to trade broadly in line with Friday's close.
Power moved in two directions at once. Friday's day-ahead settled more than £20/MWh lower on heavy solar, with the peak product settling well below baseload, and prices turned negative over the weekend. The day-ahead has since rebounded by a similar margin, while the forward seasons drifted marginally lower. Winter baseload is holding around the low £120s per MWh, down roughly five per cent on the week but still around half as much again as a year ago. A heavy schedule of UK nuclear outages through August, alongside heat-related nuclear constraints in France and Switzerland, is the main near-term risk to the prompt.
In the wider complex, Brent firmed into Friday's close towards $90/bbl before falling sharply this morning to the mid $80s as the US cancelled planned strikes on Iran and talks advanced over the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC+ agreed at the weekend to complete the rollback of its voluntary output cuts from September, adding to the bearish tone, though continued strikes on Russian refining capacity pull the other way. Coal was little changed and carbon was flat in both schemes, with the UK allowance holding its established discount to the EU equivalent. Sterling firmed modestly against both the dollar and the euro.
This Snapshot offers a concise view of market trends. For comprehensive daily reports, strategic analysis and tailored advisory support, Lumley Consulting provides independent insight across gas, power and wider energy markets. Learn more about our premium subscriptions and consultancy services here.