Snapshot - 03 June 2026
Energy markets are pulling in two directions. Tuesday's settlement extended the recent sell-off across gas and power as a milder, windier outlook eased near-term tightness, but prices have rebounded firmly this morning after a fresh escalation in the Gulf and a cooler near-term forecast revived the supply-risk premium. Front-month gas has swung back above 119p per therm, with the forward curve firmer even as the day-ahead stays soft.
Gas fundamentals remain comfortable. Norwegian flows are robust despite an unplanned Oseberg curtailment, LNG arrivals are heavy and largely US-sourced, and UK system demand has eased, leaving the physical balance loose. The firmer tone is geopolitical rather than fundamental, with deferred contracts still carrying a premium that has held the front season well above pre-conflict levels.
Power mirrors gas, with the curve firmer this morning and the prompt capped by an incoming wind surge that is set to lift output sharply into tomorrow. A heavy nuclear outage stack continues to support forward seasons and keeps reliance on gas-fired generation high, while crude firmed on the Gulf news and carbon edged higher, led by UK allowances.
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