Snapshot - 02 June 2026
Near-dated gas and power surged on Monday as Middle East tensions escalated, Norwegian supply slipped and weaker wind lifted gas-fired demand, only for the prompt to fall back this morning. NBP day-ahead settled above 120 p/therm before easing toward 118 p/therm, while UK baseload day-ahead climbed past 110 £/MWh on Monday and has since dropped sharply as wind and solar forecasts strengthened and the system opened long.
The forward curve firmed more modestly, carrying a small risk premium into the deferred contracts even as the front gives way. European storage remains comfortable for the time of year at just over 40 per cent full, the LNG arrival schedule into north-west Europe is heavy and dominated by US cargoes, and a stack of UK nuclear outages continues to limit firm low-carbon capacity. Improving wind into next week is the key downside signal.
Crude and coal rode the same risk premium higher on Monday, with Brent around 95 $/bbl before easing this morning, while carbon broke from the rally as EUAs and UK Allowances both fell on the day and UK Allowances held a wide discount to the EU benchmark. Sterling firmed a touch against the euro.
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