The Hole a Ceasefire Won't Fill

The market is trading Europe's gas premium as a Hormuz story: when the strait reopens, the price deflates. That logic works for oil. It fails for gas, because the blockade is only the reversible half of the March shock. The other half - 12.8 mtpa of Qatari liquefaction destroyed at Ras Laffan - cannot be restored by communique, and a structural slice of the Cal-27 and Cal-28 premium will outlive any ceasefire.