Snapshot - 29 April 2026
European gas and power markets opened firmer this morning after Tuesday's bearish session, retracing as Middle East risk reasserted itself. NBP front month indicated near 111 p/therm and UK baseload front month around 90 £/MWh - both up around 2-3 per cent from Tuesday's settlement. Tuesday's losses had reflected mild UK weather and stronger renewables, but the latest model run flips bullish from 5 May, with demand returning above seasonal norms just as wind generation drops sharply and Norwegian maintenance steps up.
Crude was the standout mover. Brent rallied to above 111 $/bbl, up almost 13 per cent on the week, as the Strait of Hormuz closure persisted and US-Iran negotiations stalled. WTI traded above 99 $/bbl. The UAE's announcement that it will leave OPEC after nearly six decades drew a muted response, with traders viewing existing supply constraints as already pricing the relevant tightness.
Carbon ticked higher with EUAs around 75 €/tonne and UKAs around 52 £/tonne. UK gas storage sits at a seasonal low of 8 per cent of capacity, with Rough at zero, framing the injection task ahead. UK nuclear availability is weakening into May with multiple Heysham, Torness and Sizewell B outages stacking up. The combined picture - tighter Norwegian supply, falling wind, weakening nuclear and elevated geopolitical premiums - points to a more constructive near-term backdrop for both fuels.
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