Snapshot - 29 June 2026
Energy markets spent the week under the shadow of the Strait of Hormuz, where an escalation between the US and Iran built a risk premium that then unwound just as quickly once both sides agreed at the weekend to stand down. Oil took the hit, with Brent down around 4 per cent on Friday and close to 10 per cent across the week. Gas and power held up better, firming modestly into Friday's close and again into Monday morning as tighter near-term fundamentals offset an otherwise comfortable supply picture.
UK and Continental gas found support from an unplanned Norwegian outage and softer early-week wind, which lifted expected gas-for-power demand, even as strong Langeled flows and steady LNG kept the system well supplied. Day-ahead NBP held around 98 pence per therm, with front contracts firmer. Power tracked gas, with forward baseload edging higher and prompt prices firming into the new week as weekday demand returned and nuclear availability stayed low.
Across the wider complex, crude led the move lower, coal eased and carbon drifted in both schemes, with UK and EU allowances each marginally softer on the day. The week ahead hinges on whether the Middle East calm holds and on a forecast recovery in wind from mid-week, both of which point to easing pressure on prompt prices unless the geopolitical picture turns again.
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