Snapshot - 29 July 2026
Wholesale gas fell for a second session on 28 July as Norwegian supply held steady and the weather outlook stayed mild, though the pace of decline slowed sharply after Monday's rout. Day-ahead NBP settled in the mid-130s p/therm and the winter contracts gave up only modest ground, leaving the front season well above where it began the month. The physical picture remains the tension in the market: European storage is more than 12 percentage points behind last year, LNG deliveries into Europe are running well below 2025 levels, and UK sendout has all but stopped. This morning the market has turned, with gas indicated firmer across the curve.
Power moved against gas on the prompt, with day-ahead baseload settling roughly £6/MWh higher in the high £120s as wind faded, while peak priced below baseload on strong solar output. The intraday picture was volatile in the extreme, swinging from negative prices around midday to the high £170s/MWh during the evening peak. Nuclear availability continues to deteriorate, with several units on unplanned outage and further planned work starting this week. Forward power fell further than gas, compressing front-month generation margins.
Across the wider complex, crude fell for a third consecutive session as the risk premium unwound, with Brent settling in the mid-$80s/bbl before rebounding this morning on renewed military activity in the Middle East. Coal eased, and carbon drifted lower on both sides of the Channel with the UK allowance discount to Europe holding broadly steady. Sterling was unchanged against both the euro and the dollar and played no part in the day's pricing.
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