Snapshot - 28 May 2026
Energy markets swung both ways as Middle East geopolitics overwhelmed an otherwise soft fundamental picture. Wednesday's settlement fell across gas, power and oil on warmer weather, stronger wind and a rumoured US-Iran peace deal, before that rumour was dismissed and prices clawed back some ground. By this morning the mood had reversed entirely, with an overnight strike on a US airbase near the Strait of Hormuz lifting gas, forward power and crude.
Prompt gas settled lower on Wednesday but reopened sharply higher this morning, the front of the curve recovering several pence per therm. Power followed, the prompt easing on the day before the forward curve firmed alongside gas. Warm temperatures, strong solar and an oversupplied system are weighing on near-term demand, while low storage and a long list of nuclear outages are stopping prices falling further.
Brent fell more than 5 per cent on Wednesday on the peace-deal headlines, then rebounded this morning as supply risk returned to the fore. Carbon held firm against the wider move. With temperatures easing back to seasonal norms next week and wind dipping over the weekend, direction from here hinges on whether the Hormuz situation escalates or settles.
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