Snapshot - 27 April 2026
UK and European gas markets opened firmer this morning, extending Friday's bullish move. NBP front-month traded up around 1 p/therm in early indicative pricing, with the wider curve also moving higher and Win-27 jumping more than 7 p/therm versus Friday. The drivers are stacking up on the supportive side: cooler weather forecast next week, a sharp drop in expected wind output across the UK and Germany, European storage at a four-year low for April, only one UK LNG arrival scheduled in the next fortnight, and lingering Strait of Hormuz risk after US-Iran talks were cancelled overnight.
Power tracked gas higher into the open after a softer Friday at the day-ahead. UK baseload front-month edged up toward the low-£90s/MWh, with winter and summer contracts gaining 2-4%. The combination of falling wind generation, ongoing nuclear outages at Heysham and a heavier maintenance schedule from early May has kept system margins tight, with CCGTs taking a larger share of the stack.
Brent crude extended its rally to around $106/bbl on continued Middle East supply risk, while coal lifted in sympathy. Carbon split direction: EUAs were broadly flat on the day and softer on the week, while UKAs firmed sharply against the broader complex following the UK's decision to remove the carbon tax on power generation from April 2028.
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