Snapshot - 27 July 2026
Wholesale energy markets have turned decisively lower this morning after eight straight sessions of gains. Reports that Iran will suspend attacks provided the United States reciprocates have prompted traders to unwind a substantial share of the geopolitical premium built up over the past fortnight. UK gas contracts across the prompt and near curve have shed roughly 6 to 7 per cent from Friday's close, with front-month NBP falling from the low 150s into the mid 140s p/therm. Even so, the week-on-week picture remains firmly higher, with gas contracts still up around 10 per cent on where they sat seven days ago.
Power has softened alongside gas but by a smaller margin, with near-dated baseload contracts down roughly 2 to 4 per cent from Friday. The difference reflects genuine supply-side tightness that geopolitics does not touch: an unusually large slice of the British nuclear fleet is offline, French nuclear availability is constrained by maintenance and temperature restrictions, and imports are carrying around a quarter of British supply. The weekend showed the shape of the summer system clearly, with prices turning negative through the middle of Sunday on strong solar output before spiking to well over £150/MWh during the evening ramp.
Across the wider complex, crude gave back a large part of last week's rally and is reported back below $90/bbl, though it remains close to 10 per cent higher over the week. Coal moved in the opposite direction, firming again on the day and on the week. Carbon eased on both schemes, with the UK allowance falling further than its European counterpart and the discount widening. Sterling was broadly flat. The underlying tension is unchanged: European storage sits well below last year with limited time left to close the gap before winter, and any renewed escalation would find a market that has just removed most of its insurance.
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