Snapshot - 27 August 2026
Wholesale gas fell back on Wednesday as reports of talks aimed at reopening safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz took some of the war premium out of the market. NBP front-season contracts gave up around two pence to settle in the low-to-mid 160s p/therm, with day-ahead just above 160 p/therm, and continental hubs moved in line. The physical backdrop into today has also loosened, with Norwegian maintenance at Troll now complete and export nominations to the UK sharply higher. That said, European storage is still well short of where it should be at this point in the year, and the market continues to price a meaningful premium for December and January delivery.
Power did not follow. UK day-ahead baseload firmed slightly to sit just above £140/MWh, and the forward curve edged higher, with winter contracts holding in the mid-£130s per MWh. The reason is domestic rather than international: nuclear availability is unusually thin, with one Hartlepool unit off since May, fresh unplanned losses this week, and a heavy planned outage programme starting at the end of the month. Thermal generation margins remain squeezed, which is limiting how far power can follow gas lower.
Elsewhere, Brent slipped further to settle in the high $80s per barrel, down around 4 per cent on the week, and carbon retreated from multi-week highs, with EU allowances easing into the low €80s per tonne and UK allowances into the high £50s. Coal was little changed. The unwind across oil and carbon is best read as a pause in an uptrend rather than a turn, and any deterioration in the Hormuz talks would likely reverse much of this week's move.
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