Snapshot - 22 April 2026
Geopolitical risk drove a sharp move higher in European gas markets through yesterday's session as the US-Iran ceasefire deadline approached without a clear path to a permanent agreement. NBP and TTF rallied across the curve, with the front of the UK gas curve adding 3 to 4 p/therm and the prompt up around 5 p/therm. Power tracked gas firmly higher on the curve, though day-ahead baseload eased as renewables met more than 58 per cent of UK demand. Carbon drifted lower against the bullish energy tone, with EUAs and UKAs both softer.
This morning the geopolitical impulse has partially reversed, with Washington extending the ceasefire indefinitely overnight. NBP and TTF opened lower but have stabilised through the morning as fundamental tightness reasserted itself, with Norwegian flows recovering after Troll maintenance was eased. Power has continued to firm on weakening wind forecasts that will lift gas-for-power demand into next week. Brent crude is trading around 99.60 $/bbl on reports of vessel seizures in the Strait of Hormuz.
The market remains caught between an embedded geopolitical risk premium, supply-side noise from Norwegian maintenance, weakening near-term wind output and a tight UK storage position ahead of the summer injection programme. With the ceasefire framework still fluid and physical fundamentals offering little slack, volatility is likely to remain elevated through the coming sessions.
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