Snapshot - 21 September 2026
Wholesale gas and power both finished last week higher, with UK gas prices settling in the mid-190s p/therm on the prompt and the front-month pushing towards 200 p/therm. The move was uniform across North West Europe and was driven by storage rather than weather: continental inventories are sitting around 70 per cent full and the UK considerably lower, with injection season all but over. Norwegian supply is running at reasonable volumes but is carrying a growing list of unplanned outages, and the Middle East situation continues to add a premium without yet disrupting physical cargoes. Prices have eased modestly this morning, off roughly 1 to 2 per cent, in thin trading.
Power tracked gas higher on the curve, with October and Winter 26 baseload both settling in the high £150s/MWh. The prompt was a different picture entirely. Weekend day-ahead prices collapsed to under £30/MWh as renewables output overwhelmed light demand, with Sunday afternoon system prices turning sharply negative, before rebounding to around £200/MWh into Monday as wind faded. Continental markets moved in the same direction and for the same reasons, with French and German contracts both posting large gains, the former on the prospect of nuclear curtailment from October.
Across the wider complex, crude eased to around the low $100s/bbl despite the geopolitical headlines, as physical flows continue to hold up. Coal drifted lower across the forward strip. Carbon markets split, with EU allowances firming to near their highest levels of the year while UK allowances slipped, widening the discount between the two schemes. Sterling was broadly unchanged and had no meaningful influence on import costs.
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