Snapshot - 21 July 2026
Energy markets pushed higher again on Monday as the conflict between the US and Iran entered a ninth night and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz kept supply security firmly in focus. NBP front-month gas gained around 2 per cent to settle in the low 140s p/therm, and prices have firmed further this morning, though contracts beyond next summer actually eased - a sign the market still views this as a near-term risk story rather than a structural one.
Power followed gas upwards, with day-ahead baseload jumping by more than a quarter to the high £120s/MWh on weak wind, hot weather and a growing list of nuclear outages, including a fresh unplanned shutdown at Heysham 2. Winter-26 baseload moved up towards the low £120s/MWh, and evening system prices spiked close to £190/MWh, underlining how tight the margins are when renewables underperform.
Beyond gas and power, Brent crude settled just below $90/bbl before pushing above it this morning, and carbon was the day's biggest mover - EU allowances rallied more than 5 per cent into the low €80s per tonne on Brussels' proposed ETS overhaul, with UK allowances following into the low £60s. The full report covers the detailed contract moves, supply fundamentals and the developments behind them.
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