Snapshot - 20 October 2026
Energy markets extended a month-long rally through Monday’s session, with UK gas and power both firmer and the strongest moves now appearing further out along the curve rather than on the prompt. Day-ahead gas settled in the mid-216s per therm and has opened higher again this morning, close to a four-year high, while day-ahead power jumped to the high £170s per megawatt hour from the high £140s on Friday. Gains were broad across every contract on the gas strip.
The repricing is being driven by supply risk rather than cold weather. European storage is running short of a target that has already been relaxed, maritime disruption around the Strait of Hormuz continues to complicate LNG routing, and Asian buyers are paying up for the same cargoes. Norwegian flows and the UK physical balance both looked comfortable on the day, which underlines that this is a market pricing what might go wrong in 2027 rather than what is going wrong now. Deferred gas contracts have added around a quarter since the start of October, and forward power roughly a fifth.
Elsewhere, crude held above $109 a barrel after touching its highest level since May, coal extended gains towards $150 a tonne, and sterling was mixed. Carbon was the exception, with both European and UK allowances slipping on the week even as the fuels they price rallied - a divergence worth watching, since it may be signalling less confidence in industrial demand holding up than the gas curve currently assumes.
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