Snapshot - 18 June 2026
Wholesale energy prices fell again as a signed agreement between the United States and Iran removed the war premium that had supported the market, and mild, windy weather across north-west Europe added to the downward pressure. Gas and crude led the move: the British gas day-ahead eased to just over 100 pence per therm, the front-month slipped below 100 pence, and Brent crude dropped to a three-month low beneath 80 dollars per barrel.
Power was more mixed. The day-ahead firmed on tighter near-term conditions, but the forward curve held steady rather than tracking gas lower, supported by carbon prices close to 80 euros per tonne and by the risk that summer heat forces French nuclear reactors to cut output. Recovering wind and solar generation, meanwhile, trimmed the call on gas-fired plant and weighed on the front of the power market.
The supply backdrop stayed comfortable. Norwegian flows recovered after an outage was resolved, liquefied natural gas continued to arrive, and European storage remained on course for healthy levels ahead of winter. With geopolitical risk easing and the weather benign, the immediate direction of travel is lower, though firm carbon and continental nuclear risk are limiting how far forward prices can fall.
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