Snapshot - 17 September 2026
Gas prices fell back sharply on Wednesday, with UK NBP breaking below the 200 p/therm level that had held since the start of the month and settling in the low 190s. The move looked like profit-taking after a steep month-long rally rather than any genuine improvement in supply, and the curve fell across the front with winter contracts giving up the most ground. Behind the price action the fundamentals remain tight. Norwegian supply fell again after an unplanned outage at a major field, European storage is running well below both last year and normal for the time of year, and the UK in particular has very little stored gas to fall back on. Prices have already firmed again this morning.
Power fell considerably harder than gas, with UK day-ahead baseload dropping by more than a third as a strong Atlantic wind front swept in. The effect was dramatic within the day itself: prices approaching the top of the recent range during the early morning ramp, then turning negative before midday as wind and solar output overwhelmed demand. Forward power was far more resilient, barely moving on the session, because the underlying winter picture has not changed. Several nuclear units remain offline, gas-fired generation is uneconomic at current fuel and carbon costs, and the wind is forecast to drop away sharply from early next week.
Across the wider complex, oil eased for a second day as reassurance emerged on the timeline for repairing damaged Saudi export infrastructure, though Brent remains above $100 a barrel and well up on the week. Coal was broadly flat. Carbon drifted lower in both the European and UK schemes without leading the move, and the UK allowance continues to trade at a meaningful discount to its European equivalent. Sterling weakened against both the dollar and the euro, which slightly raises the cost of imported energy for UK buyers.
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