Snapshot - 14 July 2026
Wholesale energy markets pushed higher again on Monday, with the direction of travel firmly bullish as an escalating geopolitical risk premium around the Strait of Hormuz outweighed a broadly comfortable supply picture. Prompt UK gas rose around 6 per cent and continental gas gained in step, while UK day-ahead power climbed into the low £110s/MWh and was bid higher still for Tuesday. The mood was set by reports of attacks on shipping near Hormuz and talk of a transit fee on Gulf cargoes, which lifted the front of the gas curve and sent oil sharply higher.
Gas fundamentals stayed mixed but the risk bid dominated. Norwegian flows were healthy overall with more gas routed to the UK, though a field outage and a persistent US LNG export outage kept the supply narrative tight, and European storage remained below seasonal norms. Forward gas gained across the board, with the prompt continuing to outrun winter and the further-dated seasons lagging well behind.
Power followed gas and carbon higher, supported by warm weather, inconsistent wind and reduced French nuclear output as river temperatures forced curtailments. In the wider complex, Brent jumped by more than $7/bbl, coal firmed, and carbon edged up on both the EU and UK schemes, while sterling softened against the euro and the dollar. The overall tone into Tuesday remained bullish, with markets braced for further geopolitical headlines.
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