Snapshot - 14 August 2026
UK and European gas prices pulled in two directions on Thursday. Day-ahead gas pushed higher, gaining around 1 per cent to just under 150 p/therm, after an unplanned outage at a major Norwegian processing plant took supply out of the Northwest European system. The forward curve went the other way, giving back close to 1 per cent across winter and the front quarters, though it remains sharply higher than a month ago. Supply looks more comfortable this morning: Norwegian deliveries to the UK have recovered strongly, domestic production is up and demand is easing as the heatwave breaks, with day-ahead temperatures dropping to around 19°C. European storage remains the nagging problem, sitting roughly 12 percentage points below where it was a year ago.
Power eased on the prompt but held firm further out. UK day-ahead baseload settled in the mid-£140s, broadly level with France and a little above Germany. The shape of the day was more interesting than the level: strong solar dragged afternoon system prices down into the £70s, before an evening ramp pushed them above £250/MWh for several consecutive half-hours and to a daily high near £350/MWh. Peak consequently settled below baseload. Forward power is being underpinned by continental supply problems rather than domestic ones, with French nuclear availability for next week revised down again on heat-related river cooling limits and Romania shutting its last nuclear reactor as Danube levels hit record lows.
Elsewhere, crude fell around 2 per cent on a large US stock build before recovering this morning as the US signalled a tougher naval posture towards Iran, leaving Brent near $88/bbl. Coal drifted lower across the forward years but holds a solid weekly gain. Carbon firmed on both sides of the Channel, with EUAs in the low €80s per tonne and UK allowances around £59 per tonne, keeping the UKA at a persistent discount that continues to shape UK generation economics. Sterling was little changed.
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