Snapshot - 13 September 2026
European gas markets extended a strong rally on Monday, with UK and continental prompt prices reaching their highest levels in close to four years. The move was driven almost entirely by geopolitics rather than weather: a major Saudi crude pipeline built to bypass the Strait of Hormuz remains shut after drone strikes, diplomatic talks on reopening the waterway have been postponed indefinitely, and Qatari LNG exports are still largely suspended. UK day-ahead gas settled in the mid 200s p/therm, up around 8 p/therm on the day, with the winter contracts gaining broadly in line. Mild weather and comfortable UK system balances did nothing to slow it.
Power followed gas higher along the forward curve, with UK Q4 and winter baseload contracts adding roughly £5/MWh and German October baseload setting a record. The prompt went the other way, easing back after Monday's wind-driven spike, and UK day-ahead baseload cleared in the mid £160s/MWh. Intraday conditions were volatile in both directions, with midday solar pushing prices down near £135/MWh before the evening ramp took them to around £270/MWh. Thermal and nuclear availability remains tight on both sides of the Channel, though stronger wind from Thursday should ease prompt margins.
In the wider complex, Brent held near four-month highs above $105/bbl on Gulf supply-security concerns, and coal firmed slightly with API2 forward prices in the mid $130s/tonne. Carbon rose, with EU allowances gaining close to €2.50/tonne while UK allowances were broadly unchanged, widening the UKA discount. Storage remains the structural concern heading into winter, with EU inventories well below seasonal norms and the UK notably lower still.
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