Snapshot - 11 September 2026
Gas and power extended a five-session rally on Thursday, with the front winter contract pushing decisively through 200 p/therm to close at its highest level in years and day-ahead power settling comfortably above £170/MWh. The driver was supply rather than weather: Norwegian pipeline flows to the UK fell around 10 per cent as an intensive maintenance programme got underway, while escalating disruption to Middle East shipping continued to keep a risk premium in the market. Continental benchmarks reached their highest levels since December 2022.
This morning has brought some relief. Prompt gas has eased a few points and day-ahead power has fallen sharply, by something in the order of £60/MWh, as the latest forecast run showed stronger wind and lower gas-for-power demand. Forward contracts have barely moved, however, which suggests the market sees this as a change in the weather rather than a change in the supply story. Further out the curve, some contracts have actually firmed on thin liquidity.
The context for buyers is a market that remains up more than ten per cent on the week across most winter and calendar contracts, and roughly double where it stood a year ago. Storage is the central concern, with UK stocks around a third full against a European average closer to two thirds, and competition for LNG cargoes intensifying as Asian prices stay strong. Crude gained sharply through the week before easing this morning, while carbon was little changed in both the European and UK schemes.
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