Snapshot - 09 July 2026
Energy markets are holding near the top of a firmly bullish week, driven by renewed conflict in the Middle East and a tightening supply picture. Fresh US strikes on Iran and the continued risk to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have added a heavy premium to near-dated contracts, lifting UK and continental gas by roughly 10 pence per therm and around 5 per cent respectively since Monday. Extended Norwegian outages, a poor storage-injection season and heatwave-driven cooling demand are compounding the move.
Power tracked higher, with the UK front-month baseload firming this morning as the risk premium fed through and wind stayed below seasonal norms. Day-ahead prices eased from Wednesday's spike as wind began to recover, though French nuclear cuts driven by the heat continue to tighten continental margins. UK nuclear availability is improving as reactors return from maintenance, which should temper forward pressure over the coming weeks.
Across the wider complex, crude pushed to multi-week highs on the escalation, while coal firmed and carbon slipped against the fuel-led rally. With the geopolitical risk premium, supply outages and weather all pulling in the same direction, the near curve remains sensitive to further headlines. The full Wholesale Market Update sets out the detailed price moves, supply balances and forward-curve implications across gas, power, carbon and the wider commodity complex.
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