Snapshot - 06 February 2026
European energy markets remained volatile as geopolitical tensions and divergent weather models competed for direction. Gas edged higher on the prompt, with NBP day-ahead settling at 85.80p/therm and Summer 26 closing up 0.50p/therm to 74.75p/therm, supported by a short UK system, reduced Norwegian flows via Langeled and Vesterled, and lower LNG send-out from Dragon terminal. The power curve moved inversely, easing as wind output averaged over 20 GW – more than half the GB mix – while a sharp carbon sell-off saw EUA Dec 26 fall 5.7 per cent to €78.20/tonne and UK ETS Dec 26 drop to £57.35/tonne. Brent crude slipped 2.7 per cent to $67.55/bbl ahead of US–Iran nuclear talks in Oman, where tensions are running high after a drone shootdown and a tanker confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz.
The temperature outlook is the critical swing factor. The EC operational run this morning flagged a deep cold push from 16 February, with German temperatures potentially dropping 10 degrees below seasonal norms, though rival models show a much milder deviation of around 4 degrees. EU storage at 39.17 per cent full and daily withdrawals of 8.2 TWh keep the inventory trajectory firmly in focus – any confirmation of the colder scenarios would accelerate draws and support prompt pricing. Wind generation is forecast to ease from current elevated levels towards seasonal norms next week, raising the prospect of tighter system margins and stronger gas-for-power demand.
On the US side, Henry Hub March futures settled lower at $3.42/MMBtu after Baker Hughes data showed a sharp jump in Haynesville drilling rigs, signalling more supply ahead. Hedge funds have cut bullish positions to a 13-month low following the record 30 per cent single-day price drop on 2 February, though some analysts have warned of a potential large gap at the Sunday reopen. Cross-basin dynamics remain relevant for European markets, with LNG flows still oriented towards Europe as JKM strengthens on tighter Asian supply and an anticipated temperature drop in China.
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